Friday 16 November 2007

Future of Mobile: How Devices Will Evolve

by Simon Rockman (Sony Ericsson)

  • His job is understanding what people will want to do with their cheaper phones in the next couple of years
  • T68 hit the market right -- introduced colour & Bluetooth at the right time

  • Technologies take about 3-5 years from introduction to mass adoption
  • When WAP failed, WAP-Push succeeded
  • Therefore spotting the next big thing is not coming up with new ideas, but working out what will work
  • Don't think that UMA (home/mobile together) will take off
    • e.g. when BT has tried to sell DECT phones that look like mobile phones, they haven't sold
  • Difference between listening to what people want and understanding what people want
    • Nokia 5100 huge success in India cos it has a torch vs Motorola rugged motophone
    • Painting a Razor pink way outsold new 3G Nokias in Xmas 2005
  • What will win is building phones for what things they want to do
    • e.g. new TomTom navigator has a SIM

    • 60% of Blackberry users have a voice phone
    • 100% penetration is not the limit -- probably 5-6 phones each
    • Currently 2 billion devices, but really 2 billion SIMs -- can get larger
  • Simon thinks fragmentation is a good thing, as it meets the demand for the multiple needs of each person
  • When building millions of phones, the thing that drives down cost is cheaper or omitting components
    • "Software can be more expensive as need to ensure platform passes tests"
    • Cheaper and better for developers to keep the platform stable
  • People accept larger bills by separating out into different categories
    • e.g. my music bill, my messaging bill and my voice bill

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