Future of Mobile: How Devices Will Evolve

by Simon Rockman (Sony Ericsson)

• His job is understanding what people will want to do with their cheaper phones in the next couple of years

• T68 hit the market right -- introduced colour & Bluetooth at the right time

• Technologies take about 3-5 years from introduction to mass adoption
• When WAP failed, WAP-Push succeeded
• Therefore spotting the next big thing is not coming up with new ideas, but working out what will work
• Don't think that UMA (home/mobile together) will take off
  • e.g. when BT has tried to sell DECT phones that look like mobile phones, they haven't sold
• Difference between listening to what people want and understanding what people want
  • Nokia 5100 huge success in India cos it has a torch vs Motorola rugged motophone
  • Painting a Razor pink way outsold new 3G Nokias in Xmas 2005
• What will win is building phones for what things they want to do

  • e.g. new TomTom navigator has a SIM

  • 60% of Blackberry users have a voice phone
  • 100% penetration is not the limit -- probably 5-6 phones each
  • Currently 2 billion devices, but really 2 billion SIMs -- can get larger
• Simon thinks fragmentation is a good thing, as it meets the demand for the multiple needs of each person
• When building millions of phones, the thing that drives down cost is cheaper or omitting components
  • "Software can be more expensive as need to ensure platform passes tests"
  • Cheaper and better for developers to keep the platform stable
• People accept larger bills by separating out into different categories
  • e.g. my music bill, my messaging bill and my voice bill